Energy scenarios for the Minas Gerais State in Brazil: an integrated modeling exercise using System Dynamics

Table 3 Estimated costs of interventions by 2015 and 2030, and cumulative costs in BAU and RIC scenarios

Estimated costs (in US$ million)	2015		2030		Cumulative
Estimated costs (in US$ million)	BAU	RIC	BAU	RIC	BAU	RIC
Power generation	455	426	789	847	7,597	8,859
Imports of oil derivates	2,287	1,454	9,249	4,346	54,934	24,946
Oil production	10,025	9,992	10,577	10,787	135,590	135,590
Construction of renewable power plants	2,454	1,823	462	939	8,497	10,862
Construction of non-renewable power plants	117	41	469	67	3,192	1,245
Electricity exports	−1,194	−1,332	0	−471	−14,892	−30,391
Electricity imports	0	0	0.449	0	0.590	0
Oil imports	5,726	5,726	8,798	8,798	121,083	121,083
Economic subsidy for ethanol production	0	0	0	7,746^a	0	78,256^a
Income generated from job creation	34	86	301	536	2,800	4,400
Total net cost	19,872	18,132	31,494	33,061	316,143^b	350,452^b

^aCalculated to keep the same payment for the producer, considering sugar or alcohol yield. This high cost is due to the price of sugar rises from US$139 to US$210/t (in 2030), while the price of alcohol (endogenous) suffers slight variation from US$298/t to US$300/t.
^bCumulative costs estimated from 2013 to 2030.

ISSN: 2192-0567