Uncertainty analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging: a case study of input variables to energy models and inference to associated uncertainties of energy scenarios

Table 1 Bayesian Model Averaging summary (rounded)

	PIP	Post mean	Post SD	Cond.Pos.Sign
USCONNG	0.99	−0.53	0.13	0
WTI_PRICE	0.99	0.09	0.03	1
ELC	0.97	−3.34	0.93	0
TRA	0.95	−0.88	0.30	0.00041
GDP	0.95	0.82	0.30	0.997
RENEW	0.51	0.13	0.15	1
CRUDE_PRICE	0.31	−0.01	0.03	0.033
NGRENT	0.25	−0.01	0.02	0.03
OILRENT	0.17	−0.01	0.06	0.22
INDPROD	0.15	−0.01	0.03	0.03
IMPTOT	0.14	−0.01	0.05	0.24
DEPL	0.13	−0.02	0.11	0.09
INDVAL	0.12	−0.01	0.06	0.09
NRGPROD	0.10	0.01	0.10	0.75
IMPP_DE	0.08	−0.002	0.02	0.37
GASELC	0.07	0.003	0.03	0.74
OILELC	0.07	−0.005	0.08	0.28
HDD	0.06	−0.0001	0.01	0.38

ISSN: 2192-0567