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Table 3 Inclusion of variables (coefficient estimate) and posterior model probability for the best five models (rounded)

From: Uncertainty analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging: a case study of input variables to energy models and inference to associated uncertainties of energy scenarios

 

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Model 5

INDPROD

     

DEPL

     

TRA

−0.72

−0.82

−1.17

−0.88

−0.96

RENEW

0.26

0.23

 

0.23

0.19

ELC

−3.03

−3.25

−3.96

−3.30

−3.47

GASELC

     

OILELC

     

IMPTOT

     

NRGPROD

     

GDP

0.73

0.68

0.99

0.75

0.84

INDVAL

     

NGRENT

  

−0.05

 

−0.03

OILRENT

   

−0.08

 

USCONNG

−0.54

−0.50

−0.53

−0.50

−0.52

WTI_PRICE

0.07

0.11

0.08

0.08

0.07

CRUDE_PRICE

 

-0.04

   

IMPP_DE

     

HDD

     

PMP (exact)

0.1113

0.0780

0.0543

0.0365

0.0329

PMP (MCMC)

0.1109

0.0751

0.0527

0.0356

0.0324