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Table 4 Individual uncertainties of variables (influences) and model uncertainty for model 1 (cf.Table 3) with n = 6

From: Uncertainty analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging: a case study of input variables to energy models and inference to associated uncertainties of energy scenarios

Model 1 M 1
Variable k PIP Individual uncertainty n
USCONNG 99.24 % 0.76 % 1
WTI_PRICE 98.62 % 1.38 % 2
ELC 97.07 % 2.94 % 3
TRA 95.46 % 4.55 % 4
GDP 95.20 % 4.80 % 5
RENEW 50.83 % 49.17 % 6
Averaged uncertainty \( \frac{{\displaystyle {\sum}_{k=1}^{k=n}}\left(1-{\mathrm{PIP}}_{k\ }\right)}{n} \) 10.60 %  
  PMPM1 Model uncertainty  
  11.13 %   
Model uncertainty Ψ(M 1) = 1 − PMP M1 100 % − 11.13 % = 88.87 %