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Table 4 Individual uncertainties of variables (influences) and model uncertainty for model 1 (cf.Table 3) with n = 6

From: Uncertainty analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging: a case study of input variables to energy models and inference to associated uncertainties of energy scenarios

Model 1 M 1

Variable k

PIP

Individual uncertainty

n

USCONNG

99.24 %

0.76 %

1

WTI_PRICE

98.62 %

1.38 %

2

ELC

97.07 %

2.94 %

3

TRA

95.46 %

4.55 %

4

GDP

95.20 %

4.80 %

5

RENEW

50.83 %

49.17 %

6

Averaged uncertainty \( \frac{{\displaystyle {\sum}_{k=1}^{k=n}}\left(1-{\mathrm{PIP}}_{k\ }\right)}{n} \)

10.60 %

 
 

PMPM1

Model uncertainty

 
 

11.13 %

  

Model uncertainty Ψ(M 1) = 1 − PMP M1

100 % − 11.13 % = 88.87 %

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