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Table 5 Individual Uncertainties of variables (influences) and model uncertainty for model 2 (cf.Table 3) with n = 7

From: Uncertainty analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging: a case study of input variables to energy models and inference to associated uncertainties of energy scenarios

Model 2 M2
Variable k PIP Individual uncertainty n
USCONNG 99.24 % 0.76 % 1
WTI_PRICE 98.62 % 1.38 % 2
ELC 97.07 % 2.94 % 3
TRA 95.46 % 4.55 % 4
GDP 95.20 % 4.80 % 5
RENEW 50.83 % 49.17 % 6
CRUDE_PRICE 30.69 % 69.31 % 7
Averaged uncertainty \( \frac{{\displaystyle {\sum}_{k=1}^{k=n}\left(1-{\mathrm{PIP}}_{k\ }\right)}}{n} \) 18.99 %  
  PMPM2 Model uncertainty  
  7.8 %   
Model uncertainty Ψ(M 2) = 1 − PMP M2 100 % − 7.8 % = 92.2 %