Uncertainty analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging: a case study of input variables to energy models and inference to associated uncertainties of energy scenarios

Table 7 Explanation of abbreviations of influences for the case study and source of data

Abbreviation	Influence	Unit	Source
GN_Price	Average German import price	[US dollars per million BTU]	[21]
INDPROD	Production of total industry in Germany “DEUPRODINDAISMEI” seasonally adjusted	Index 2010 = 100	[49]
DEPL	Adjusted savings: energy depletion^a	[current billion US$]	[50]
TRA	Road sector energy consumption	[% of total energy consumption]	[50]
RENEW	Combustible renewables and waste	[% of total energy]	[50]
ELC	Electric power consumption	[1000 kWh per capita]	[50]
GASELC	Electricity production from natural gas sources	[% of total]	[50]
OILELC	Electricity production from oil sources	[% of total]	[50]
IMPTOT	Energy imports, net	[% of energy use]	[50]
NRGPROD	Energy production	[10,000 kt of oil equivalent]	[50]
GDP	GDP	[constant 2005 US$ 10E^12]	[50]
INDVAL	Industry, value added	[% of GDP]	[50]
NGRENT	Natural gas rents: difference between the value of natural gas production at world prices and total costs of production.	[‰ of GDP]	[50]
OILRENT	Oil rents	[‰ of GDP]	[50]
USCONNG	US Natural Gas Consumption	[10^12 CUBIC FEET]	[51]
WTI_PRICE	Spot Oil Price West Texas Intermediate	[U.S.Dollars per Barrel]	[51]
CRUDE_PRICE	Oil: Crude oil prices 1861—2012_$2012	[U.S. Dollar 2012]	[52]
IMP_DE	Natural Gas Imports GERMANY	[EJ=10^18]	[53]
HDD	Heating degree days by region NUTS-2-Regionen–Karlsruhe (nrg_esdgr_a)	[jährliche Daten]	[54]

^aEnergy depletion is the ratio of the value of the stock of energy resources to the remaining reserve lifetime (capped at 25 years). It covers coal, crude oil and natural gas

ISSN: 2192-0567