Table 1 Evaluation results of methodologies for renewable energy policy modeling
Criteria | Input-output models | CGE models | System dynamics | Agent-based modeling | Theory-based evaluation | Multi-criteria analysis | Hybrid approaches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spatial coverage | Regional to global | Regional to multi-regional | Regional to global | Regional | Regional to multi-regional | Regional to multi-regional | Regional to global |
Sectoral coverage | Medium level of disaggregation | High level of disaggregation | Medium level of disaggregation | High level of disaggregation | High level of disaggregation | High level of disaggregation | High level of disaggregation |
Time horizon | Short term | Short term to long term | Midterm to long term | Short term to midterm | – | – | Short term to long term |
Ex-post/ex-ante | Ex-ante | Ex-ante | Ex-ante | Ex-ante | Ex-post | Ex-post | Combination possible |
Quality of data sources | Medium dependent on data quality | Medium dependent on data quality | Highly dependent on data quality to validate model | Highly dependent on data | Highly dependent on data | Highly dependent on data quality | |
Assumptions on actor behavior | – | Combining knowledge of individual agents’ behavior to make inferences about market relationships | – | Cooperation and an open exchange of information or competition and secrecy | – | – | Dependent on the combination of approaches |
Assumptions on markets and systems | Constant technological coefficients and linear production functions static system | Perfectly competitive markets CGE models have an explicit representation of the microeconomic behavior of the economic agents Single country and open economy Equilibrium across all the markets (e.g., capital, labor, materials/services) | System behavior is dynamic system components interact with each other through feedbacks Time dependency of system (structure) Consistent description of the real system | In evolutionary game theory mostly limited to constant environments Numeric simulations of multi-agent systems offer much more flexibility Often based on the economic theory of general equilibrium | Assumptions of how an intervention is supposed to work is linked to the actual outcomes | Uses a variety of different criteria rather than a single criterion to analyze options and alternatives for decision-making | Dependent on the combination of approaches |
Computer-aided framework | Available | Available | Available | Available | Not available | Available | Available |
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