Skip to main content

Table 3 Scenario presentation example for My-model

From: Quantitative scenario design with Bayesian model averaging: constructing consistent scenarios for quantitative models exemplified for energy economics

My-model input variable Hypothetical assumption
Natural gas price Linear increase towards the 10th year. The initial value (2015) is the mean price level of the historical period. The peak price is twice as high as the historical max. value. Linear decrease towards the 20th year to the initial value.
Oil price Equal to natural gas price.
Conventional natural gas production Decrease towards the 10th year with a tipping point at a value lower than the historical minimum. Increase towards the 20th year stabilising below the average of the historical period.
Electricity consumption Flat increase by nearly 0.4% over the projection period.
Storage capacity Similar to “stable increase scenario”.