Table 2 Four electricity scenarios for 2050 co-developed in a stakeholder workshop
Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Capacity | Production | Capacity | Production | Capacity | Production | Capacity | Production | |
[MW] | [TWh] | [MW] | [TWh] | [MW] | [TWh] | [MW] | [TWh] | |
Technologies | ||||||||
Wind | 35,000 | 111 | 45,000 | 142 | 10,000 | 32 | 40,000 | 126 |
Solar PV | 15,000 | 23 | 30,000 | 45 | 50,000 | 75 | 10,000 | 15 |
Reservoir hydro | 3100 | 0 | 3100 | 0 | 3100 | 0 | 3100 | 0 |
Biomass | 3000 | 18 | 5000 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3000 | 16 |
CSP | 2000 | 4 | 2000 | 2 | 1300 | 3 | 1500 | 2 |
Hard coal | 5000 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 4937 | 35 | 6000 | 21 |
Oil | 741 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 741 | 4 | 741 | 1 |
Natural gas | 5500 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 6172 | 35 | 6172 | 7 |
Nuclear | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 69,341 | 185 | 85,100 | 205 | 76,250 | 184 | 70,513 | 189 |
Pumped-hydro storage | ||||||||
Capacity [GWh] | 702 | 2000 | 2000 | 702 | ||||
Pump capacity [GW] | 9.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 8.1 | ||||
Turbine capacity [GW] | 7.3 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 5.9 | ||||
Thereof (in %)…a | ||||||||
Intermittent | 65% | 71% | 74% | 93% | 67% | 58% | 66% | 74% |
Partially variable | 7% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 3% |
Variable | 28% | 26% | 21% | 13% | 28% | 47% | 28% | 24% |
Renewables | 76% | 84% | 84% | 102% | 72% | 62% | 76% | 85% |