Table 3 Model results for annual system costs and LCOE in 2050 across the four scenarios
Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Market | Best case | Market | Best case | Market | Best case | Market | Best case | ||
System costs in 2050 | Million € (2015) | 12,485 | 10,767 | 14,510 | 12,015 | 14,147 | 12,135 | 12,274 | 10,688 |
RES-E | Million € (2015) | 8560 | 7090 | 11,954 | 9838 | 6880 | 5215 | 8428 | 7071 |
Wind power | Million € (2015) | 4101 | 3559 | 5270 | 4574 | 1178 | 1022 | 4685 | 4066 |
Solar PV | Million € (2015) | 1310 | 947 | 2625 | 1899 | 4380 | 3168 | 871 | 630 |
Reservoir hydro | Million € (2015) | 426 | 356 | 389 | 326 | 503 | 419 | 423 | 354 |
Biomass | Million € (2015) | 1623 | 1423 | 2570 | 2236 | 81 | 67 | 1607 | 1406 |
CSP | Million € (2015) | 1100 | 805 | 1100 | 805 | 739 | 539 | 842 | 615 |
Conventional | Million € (2015) | 2953 | 2889 | 887 | 824 | 5744 | 5680 | 3001 | 2934 |
Hard coal | Million € (2015) | 1635 | 1616 | 481 | 463 | 2265 | 2247 | 1822 | 1800 |
Natural gas | Million € (2015) | 1001 | 965 | 361 | 326 | 2702 | 2666 | 912 | 876 |
Oil | Million € (2015) | 317 | 308 | 44 | 35 | 776 | 767 | 267 | 258 |
Storage | Million € (2015) | 936 | 758 | 1627 | 1318 | 1491 | 1214 | 810 | 655 |
Transmission grid | Million € (2015) | 37 | 30 | 42 | 34 | 32 | 26 | 35 | 28 |
System cost reduction | % | − 14% | − 17% | − 14% | − 13% | ||||
LCOE in 2050 | Ct./kWh | 7.23 | 6.24 | 8.41 | 6.96 | 8.20 | 7.03 | 7.11 | 6.19 |
LCOE cost reduction | % | − 14% | − 17% | − 14% | − 13% | ||||
CO2 emissions in 2050 | Mt/a | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 13 | 13 |