Fig. 14

Result of the probabilistic upscaling and probabilistic aggregation (exp. 3): quantile time series plot of the aggregated power of all reference wind farms and target wind farms (gray) and the aggregated observations of these wind farms (red). Upper plot: aggregated power forecast obtained without calibrating the upscaled scenarios of the wind farms without measurements. Lower plot: aggregated power forecast obtained with calibrating the upscaled scenarios of the wind farms without measurements (as described at the end of the “Calibration of upscaled probabilistic forecasts” section)