Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy models: knowledge integration in different methodological designs

Prehofer, Sigrid; Kosow, Hannah; Naegler, Tobias; Pregger, Thomas; Vögele, Stefan; Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang

doi:10.1186/s13705-021-00298-1

Table 3 Detailed methodological designs of the three case studies

From: Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy models: knowledge integration in different methodological designs

Steps	C1	C2	C3
1. Definition of design of context scenario approach	Discussion	Discussion	Discussion
2. Definition of context and descriptors	Desk research Workshop Linking factors	Desk research Interdisciplinary expert interviews Social theory^a Linking factors Expert rating	Workshop/audio conferences Interview with CIB experts Linking factors
3. Definition of descriptor variants	Desk research Workshop	Desk research Interdisciplinary expert interviews	Workshop / audio conferences
4. Quantification of descriptor variants	Literature review	Literature review Discussions between energy modelers and CIB experts	Literature review Regression analysis
5. Assessment of interdependencies between descriptors	In-house workshop	Expert interviews	Internal discussion between project members
6. Handling of dissent	Finding consent in a workshop	Written Delphi-style^b discussion Averaging the cross-impacts	Finding consent in a workshop
7. Analysis of interdependencies	CIB Balance Algorithm	CIB Balance Algorithm	CIB Balance Algorithm
8. Context scenario selection	Discussions between energy modelers and CIB experts Interviews with 8 in-house experts Multi-Level-CIB-approach^c	Discussions between energy modelers and CIB experts Correspondence analysis Scenario landscapes^d	Discussions between non-CIB experts Linking 2 energy scenarios
9. Preparation of a set of framework assumptions	Discussions between energy modelers and CIB experts Using plausibility arguments Parameterizing linking factors^e	Literature reviews Using plausibility arguments Parameterizing linking factors	Discussions within energy modelers Literature reviews Parameterizing linking factors Adding new model to model set
10. Calculation of energy scenarios	Model runs	Model runs	Model runs
11. Integration of context and energy scenarios	NOT APPLIED	Interpretation of cross-impact interrelations concerning a specific energy scenario	NOT APPLIED

^aApplication of Talcott Parsons system theory (structural functionalism)
^bThe impact assessment was done by various experts. If significant differences arose between the assessments, those were reflected to the experts. They got the chance to comment on the arguments of the other expert(s), change their own assessments according to the other expert(s), approximate in the direction of the others or keep their own assessments. Delphi as an expert method is described, for instance, by [73]
^cDue to the combination of three CIB matrices on different levels (sectoral, national, international) the approach how to combine those automatically reduces the amount of consistent scenarios and defines the selection process of scenarios (see more to Multi-level-CIB in [28]
^dAccording to geographical thematic maps, scenario landscapes were created in combination with correspondence analysis reflecting for example the positions of different variants of a descriptor on the 2 axes or the positions of societies (scenarios) including their emission assessment
^e“Linking factors” are model requirements to be considered within the context scenarios to make them linkable to the models. Examples are GDP development, tertiarization of the economy, international integration of electricity grids, development of infrastructures in power transmission and distribution, etc., depending on the specific model

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ISSN: 2192-0567

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