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Table 3 Evaluation categories and criteria specified with results from the impact studies.

From: The Integrated Policy Package Assessment approach: elaborating ex ante knowledge in the field of urban mobility

Criteria

Variables

Category I: Technology development

Innovative mobility services

• Use of electric vehicles for ride-sharing systems

Alternative drives for MPT

• Diffusion of electric vehicles in MPT (private and public)

• Range development

• Cost development

Alternative drives for public transport

• Diffusion of electric vehicles in public transport

Intelligent charging infrastructure

• Development and establishment of intelligent charging infrastructure to avoid system instability

Category II: Sector integration

Intelligent charging infrastructure

• Avoidance of negative effects of the diffusion of electric vehicles on the electricity system through the development of charging possibilities that are beneficial to the system

Coupling of renewable electricity generation with the energy demand in transport

• Electrification of the transport sector only serves climate protection if the growing demand for electricity is met by the additional expansion of renewable energy supply

• Electricity can be stored in battery electric vehicles directly at the time of generation, provided they are connected to the grid

• Electricity can be used in electrolysis plants to produce hydrogen at the time of generation. This can be stored and used for refuelling independent of the electricity generation

• Electrification thus serves the purpose of sector integration

Category III: Environmental impact

Emissions to air, water, soil

• Production: mining and use of rare earths and critical resources (lithium, cobalt, platinum) may be problematic

• Use phase: avoidance of NOx, reduction of fine dust, avoidance of further air pollutants in direct operation. Shift to electricity generation (if non-renewable energies are used)

Greenhouse gases

• Production: mining and use of rare earths and critical resources (lithium, cobalt, platinum)

• Use phase: avoidance of CO2 emissions in direct operation, shift to electricity generation if non-renewable

Category IV: Social resonance

Empirically measured willingness-to-accept

• Increase in the cost of private transport: intention to switch may be high, but there is a risk of social imbalance; alternatives (public transport and alternative drives) must be available and usable

• Lack of information: there is a lack of neutral information and education about the technical characteristics and possibilities of alternative drives, which is why there is a great deal of scepticism about the new technologies

Empirically measured consumption and investment behaviour

• Purchase decision: depending on the level of information, the level of investment, the running costs, the technical characteristics such as range

Category V: Institutional factors

Legal barriers

• Status quo: not everyone can participate equally (e.g. tenants cannot instal a charging infrastructure)

• Lack of procurement guidelines: there are (still) no guidelines for public procurement to give preference to alternative drives

Political barriers

• Windows of opportunity: current problem pressure via EU specifications, society’s climate protection claim (Fridays for Future)

• Lack of coordination: activities of the car industry, the energy sector and the state to establish charging infrastructures should be coordinated and more goal-oriented

Spatial barriers

• Contextual dependency: use of alternative drives, if necessary depending on the type of space (urban/rural), different incentives and systems of measures may be required

Economic barriers

• Investment costs: vehicles with alternative drive systems are sometimes significantly more expensive than conventional vehicles, lack of procurement guidelines