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Fig. 5 | Energy, Sustainability and Society

Fig. 5

From: Uncertainty analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging: a case study of input variables to energy models and inference to associated uncertainties of energy scenarios

Fig. 5

Expected value and predictive density: The predicted density of the natural gas price (response variable) in predicted observation 25 (2009) is shown. The real natural gas price (realized y) is represented by the black dotted line and double standard errors (2× Std. Errs) indicated as red dotted line of the expected value (exp. value). The expected value based on BMA is shown as red solid line

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