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Table 8 Dataset used for the case study

From: Uncertainty analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging: a case study of input variables to energy models and inference to associated uncertainties of energy scenarios

Average German import price_US dollars per million Btu

INDPROD(Index 2010 = 100)

Adjusted savings: energy depletion (current Billion US$)

Road sector energy consumption (% of total energy consumption)

Combustible renewables and waste (% of total energy)

Electric power consumption (1000 kWh per capita)

Electricity production from natural gas sources (% of total)

Electricity production from oil sources (% of total)

Energy imports, net (% of energy use)

3.99563468

66.2135619

3.77520916

11.7294832

1.49747221

6.23997182

7.54998182

1.82360855

42.8917551

4.2535868

69.3901986

3.64431151

11.4272989

1.45753813

6.44853986

5.37594129

1.84320732

41.39998

3.92861881

70.6643124

2.0413034

12.0147954

1.19256446

6.53023871

5.71296614

2.61453816

43.9085583

2.54750327

70.9352778

1.01961617

12.4673743

1.11974275

6.6662196

6.21263905

2.60355498

44.4736041

2.22035909

73.4892707

0.97673142

12.836138

1.23814233

6.77630791

6.05747666

2.15569475

44.0732178

2.00051377

77.1098294

1.23582807

13.36883

1.2014723

6.83532991

6.92056111

1.87245357

43.6070961

2.77589313

81.0993623

1.49687193

14.389203

1.36590835

6.63973169

7.38793025

1.8984753

46.983021

3.19009487

83.4285115

1.32569489

14.9969186

1.39062964

6.56479719

6.73856812

2.75089301

51.1120872

2.69056745

81.4907401

1.03765768

15.5911481

1.47425286

6.445874

6.16277414

2.47661485

51.6788447

2.49530955

75.3942132

0.97194923

16.1960639

1.51654485

6.28841635

6.61719813

1.93133992

54.5620005

2.35253656

77.6002914

0.8765351

15.9959469

1.55744409

6.24495723

7.66386459

1.67058577

56.4008236

2.39327263

78.1219991

0.95745389

16.067908

1.58984177

6.32770975

8.10414141

1.6859542

56.9018319

2.46046641

78.2859643

1.39360843

15.6751563

1.62031704

6.40333373

8.71959048

1.44654625

58.8114956

2.6410946

80.7081786

1.21107619

15.892132

2.02310059

6.42779877

9.07427041

1.25289456

58.3624964

2.32055722

83.6670064

0.83972109

16.2982897

2.23177303

6.47949025

9.74519122

1.1542883

60.3287856

1.87896843

84.6433451

0.81202931

17.2081933

2.13758883

6.505133

9.96534219

1.05783239

59.0460819

2.89110047

89.4132439

2.04778964

16.719146

2.33590719

6.63542141

9.17242837

0.83608096

59.7912759

3.6597883

89.7401509

2.24042841

15.8936685

2.55665148

6.7626534

10.0414858

0.81768594

61.14493

3.22899751

88.7426655

1.58382823

16.1079634

2.74806659

6.90078053

9.36689154

0.74267038

60.2666617

4.06023697

89.0108969

2.5013849

15.3577933

3.29759468

6.98333742

9.72582176

0.7833189

59.812943

4.31508165

91.7267393

3.90068434

15.5311324

3.68675527

7.08253137

10.3488964

1.66642015

59.3611541

5.87713658

95.2472758

4.96140615

15.2581738

3.8889694

7.11341229

11.3129607

1.72519472

59.3508965

7.851238

101.081308

4.99930416

15.3740419

4.63462752

7.17413767

12.0874564

1.51718813

59.1615731

8.02534168

108.080469

5.61738073

15.4860496

6.88226996

7.18430855

12.2742421

1.36669918

57.298701

11.5617693

108.30679

9.25414091

14.8288494

6.84385034

7.14910859

13.8866401

1.46448652

59.1912556

8.52238166

89.5557418

3.76340167

15.8137633

7.91003257

6.75305764

13.5002062

1.64961827

58.8162276

Energy production (10000 kt of oil equivalent)

GDP (constant 2005 US$ 10E^12)

Industry, value added (% of GDP)

Natural gas rents (‰ of GDP)

Oil rents (‰ of GDP)

US Natural Gas Consumption(10^12 CUBIC FEET)

Spot Oil Price_West Texas Intermediate Dollars per Barrel

Oil: Crude oil prices 1861 - 2012_$2012

Natural Gas Imports GERMANY (in EJ 10^18)

HGT_KA(100Kd)

19.7716189

18.41207017

38.8114012

24.9589545

10.2987245

17.950527

29.2755

63.5968751

15.44622

32.9167

20.9322801

18.84069124

39.0488442

20.2780144

9.5075317

17.280943

27.97275

58.8067903

16.41973

34.16959

20.0065217

19.27164177

39.133613

11.8335614

2.85745575

16.221296

15.04

30.2284801

16.93865

32.92562

19.9527381

19.54185939

38.4110703

7.25528732

3.05210996

17.210809

19.1619167

37.2585778

18.47311

33.7253

20.2316314

20.26632218

38.1049411

5.58754984

2.22713651

18.029585

15.9595833

28.9638589

17.99385

28.54712

20.0505497

21.0560099

37.6931739

4.71115597

2.78571576

19.119001

19.5908333

33.7468247

19.62732

28.42448

18.6166593

22.1625045

37.3389936

4.87914314

2.90510948

19.173555

24.4929167

41.6779341

19.85817

28.11743

16.8303511

23.29462319

36.6039902

4.69586209

2.07273521

19.562067

21.48125

33.7199502

20.63657

32.55735

16.3241575

23.73999005

35.4378737

3.6287842

1.67921912

20.228228

20.5614167

31.617592

21.15799

28.70615

15.1998991

23.50209223

33.144747

4.60764107

1.40088224

20.789842

18.4581667

26.9659888

22.65243

29.9521

14.5140276

24.08300552

32.8247982

3.9128976

1.17223059

21.247099

17.1858333

24.5044579

23.75961

27.06579

14.5026649

24.48687858

32.1439038

3.60300373

1.09822526

22.206889

18.4275

25.6360076

25.73843

29.89797

14.3255737

24.68051634

31.2615649

5.6539181

1.39011447

22.60908

22.1541667

30.2444928

29.22797

34.39832

14.3576406

25.10928568

31.0614983

5.71194784

1.4143878

22.737342

20.5991667

27.3117977

28.48389

29.39784

13.5969709

25.57678257

31.0242697

4.10495705

0.82099771

22.245956

14.3883333

17.9106723

27.4805

28.85699

13.7173141

26.05534448

30.4583259

3.62927753

1.16851663

22.405151

19.2516667

24.7648382

28.65234

27.77843

13.5336203

26.85202557

30.4944936

11.0274053

2.80307489

23.333121

30.2983333

37.9929394

28.41697

25.67718

13.4702341

27.25866488

29.8507936

10.5372081

2.35968142

22.238624

25.9241667

31.6892757

29.51423

28.41534

13.4518425

27.26143113

29.3112506

6.93685973

2.41392612

23.027021

26.0975

31.9354608

30.63709

26.80011

13.5860526

27.15907974

29.099429

9.93780865

2.52294489

22.276502

31.14

35.9747633

31.87328

28.58912

13.844668

27.47443267

29.4831463

8.90057958

2.88938493

22.402546

41.4383333

46.5082817

33.89857

29.61991

13.6249634

27.66253793

29.4010048

13.723637

4.19502643

22.014434

56.4658333

64.094803

34.20663

29.40079

13.9051621

28.68605183

30.0324022

12.3475472

4.72473083

21.699071

66.1033333

74.1899101

35.19141

28.02505

14.1221139

29.62381187

30.4819958

9.88857375

4.50794009

23.103793

72.3625

80.157894

33.23694

26.26759

13.6559903

29.94469731

29.7478575

11.6753374

5.12832931

23.277007

99.5675

103.711457

34.80471

28.30539

12.900774

28.40389395

26.7598781

5.05099964

2.90422434

22.910078

61.6933333

65.9995822

35.51278

28.80967