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Table 8 Ranges of future electricity generation, CO2 emissions, and some basic assumptions

From: Low-carbon development strategy for the West African electricity system: preliminary assessment using System dynamics approach

Description Scenario 2011 2036 2060 Remark
Electricity generated, billion MWh Base; 1
LCD option; 1 		0.3925 0.5427 1.053 Electricity generated at base scenario was higher than the LCD option by about 1%
0.5392 0.5315 1.043
Base; 2
LCD option; 2 		0.3925 1.831 3.408 Electricity generated at LCD option scenario was higher than the base option by about 12.61%
0.5392 2.158 3.838
CO2 emission, million tCO2 Base; 1
LCD option; 1 		66.58 92.07 178.7 Emission from the base scenario shows a difference of about 2.5% to that of LCD option
90.16 88.8 174.3
Base; 2
LCD option; 2 		66.58 310.6 578.3 Emission from the LCD option was higher by about 11% to that of base scenario
90.16 360.6 641.2
Assumptions
 Per capita electricity consumption, MWh/cap Base; 1
Base; 2 		0.146 Reference year; 2011
0.546
LCD option; 1
LCD option; 2 		0.146
0.546
 Representative technology All scenarios CCGT  
 Capacity factor, ratio Base; 1 & 2 0.48 Reference year; 2011
LCD option; 1 & 2 0.70
 Emission factor, tCO2/MWh   0.2020 (held constant for all scenarios)  
 Expectation formation, years Base 7.5  
LCD option 7.0
 Time to adjust capacity, years Base 21  
LCD option 20
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Energy, Sustainability and Society

ISSN: 2192-0567

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