Low-carbon development strategy for the West African electricity system: preliminary assessment using System dynamics approach

Table 8 Ranges of future electricity generation, CO₂ emissions, and some basic assumptions

Description	Scenario	2011	2036	2060	Remark
Electricity generated, billion MWh	Base; 1 LCD option; 1	0.3925	0.5427	1.053	Electricity generated at base scenario was higher than the LCD option by about 1%
	Base; 1 LCD option; 1	0.5392	0.5315	1.043
	Base; 2 LCD option; 2	0.3925	1.831	3.408	Electricity generated at LCD option scenario was higher than the base option by about 12.61%
	Base; 2 LCD option; 2	0.5392	2.158	3.838
CO₂ emission, million tCO₂	Base; 1 LCD option; 1	66.58	92.07	178.7	Emission from the base scenario shows a difference of about 2.5% to that of LCD option
	Base; 1 LCD option; 1	90.16	88.8	174.3
	Base; 2 LCD option; 2	66.58	310.6	578.3	Emission from the LCD option was higher by about 11% to that of base scenario
	Base; 2 LCD option; 2	90.16	360.6	641.2
Assumptions
Per capita electricity consumption, MWh/cap	Base; 1 Base; 2	0.146			Reference year; 2011
	Base; 1 Base; 2	0.546
	LCD option; 1 LCD option; 2	0.146
	LCD option; 1 LCD option; 2	0.546
Representative technology	All scenarios	CCGT
Capacity factor, ratio	Base; 1 & 2	0.48			Reference year; 2011
Capacity factor, ratio	LCD option; 1 & 2	0.70			Reference year; 2011
Emission factor, tCO₂/MWh		0.2020 (held constant for all scenarios)
Expectation formation, years	Base	7.5
Expectation formation, years	LCD option	7.0
Time to adjust capacity, years	Base	21
Time to adjust capacity, years	LCD option	20