Table 2 Process scheme of linking context scenarios with energy models in 11 steps

1. Definition of design of context scenario approach

Linking of the context scenarios with energy models needs to be conceptually developed by the project team. The objectives of the project can provide a basis for the elaboration of the specific designs

2. Definition of context and descriptors

The process of context scenario construction begins with the definition of system elements. The questions of which level of context is adequate to represent the focused energy system (e.g., regional, national or international society) and through which descriptors this context can be represented best, are pursued in this step. The descriptors need to be identified and specified (defined) in more detail to assure that all participating actors use the same information as a basis for further analysis

3. Definition of descriptor variants

Future uncertainty of all descriptors needs to be identified and specified (defined) in the form of at least two different future variants. The definition of variants maps the possible future space for each descriptor, defining alternatives as plausible extreme and, where appropriate, mean paths for each descriptor

4. Quantification of descriptor variants

To enable the context scenarios to be a bridge to energy models, at least some qualitatively defined descriptors need a quantitative equivalent. The quantification of variant specifications can be realized as part of the context scenario construction or, later, during Step 9, as part of the energy modeling^a. Quantitative descriptors can take on threefold functions: they can function as parameters; they can be a basis for an indirect statement about parameters; or they have a rather indicative character and are therefore output-related

5. Assessment of interdependencies between descriptors

Following the CIB methodology all descriptor variants are then assessed pairwise concerning their ability to influence the others in a promoting or a hindering way and to what extent (normally on a scale from − 3 to 0 to + 3). The assessments can be performed through expert statements as well as through literature review

6. Handling of dissent

If the interdependencies between descriptor variants (Step 5) are assessed by a team (e.g., in a workshop) or by different independent experts (e.g., in interviews), a decision must be reached on how dissent is to be handled. It can be aimed at one common assessment (consent) or the parallel existence of different assessments (this trade-off and its effects are described in “Effects on interdisciplinary knowledge integration”)

7. Analysis of interdependencies

The CIB balance algorithm analyzes the pairwise assessments of promoting or hindering influences and creates consistent scenario configurations. Consistency is defined as a self-stabilizing network of future variants

8. Context scenario selection

Step 7 can result in far more qualitative scenarios (depending on the number of descriptors and assessments between them) than can be analyzed in detail by the models. Therefore, a choice needs to be made. This selection can be implemented by internal methods provided by the CIB software or other qualitative or quantitative methods, for example, as referenced in Section “Effects on interdisciplinary knowledge integration”

9. Preparation of a set of framework assumptions

The set of quantified descriptors (Step 4) of a specific context scenario can be directly linked with energy models as framework assumptions (model parameter). Qualitative descriptor variants would need to be parameterized in this step as set of framework assumptions. Furthermore, some more descriptors can be interpreted and softly linked with the model through, for example, plausibility arguments. All other descriptors are indirectly linked through the impact network

Additionally, it can become necessary for model structures or the set of applied models, to be adapted in order to reflect the context scenarios

10. Calculation of energy scenarios

The framework assumptions from the context scenarios are used with the energy model and its respective energy scenarios are calculated. For this purpose, further parameters for the description of the techno-economic development paths must be defined on the side of the energy experts

11. Integration of context and energy scenarios

A specific energy scenario (calculated with the input parameter given by a context scenario) is chosen and its hidden societal implications can be interpreted in a separate and joint product containing quantitative model results and quantitative impact diagrams