Table 3 Scenarios within the Multi-Criteria Scenario Framework, varying planning criteria identified as ‘critical uncertainties’ for the case study region

#1 Wind energy under current planning

practice (no bird priority zones) (BAU)

#2 Ground-mounted PV on subsidized areas

(no bird priority zones) (BAU)

#3 Agri-PV on agricultural areas

(no bird priority zones) (BAU)

#4 Wind energy in bird priority zones

(A 0%—B 5%—C 10% wind energy in bird priority zones—D using wind energy areas in bird priority zones based on BAU)

#5 Repowering in bird priority zones

(A 100%—B 200% repowering in bird priority zones)

#6 Retrofitting in bird priority zones

(A 50% retrofitting in bird priority zones)

#7 Bird priority zones and efficient areas for

wind energy

(A 10%—B 5% wind energy in bird priority zones)

#8 Bird priority zones and

electricity demand near settlements

(A wind energy within a 1 km buffer

around settlements)

#9 Bird priority zones and network efficiency

(A < 5 km around transformer stations enabling wind energy development)

#10 Ground-mounted PV in bird priority zones

(A 0%—B 10%—C 20% PV in bird priority zones)

#11 Vertical PV in bird priority zones

(A 5%—B 10%—C 20% PV in bird priority zones)

#12 Agri-PV on agricultural areas in

bird priority zones

(A 0%—B 10%—C 20% PV in bird priority zones)

#13 Energy mix of ground-mounted PV and wind energy in bird priority zones (A 10% wind

energy and PV in bird priority zones)

#14 Ground-mounted PV to substitute for missing wind energy according to achieved targets with BAU

(A 0% PV and wind energy in bird priority zones)

#15 Bird priority zones and no

species-specific buffers

(A no species-specific buffers)

#16 Bird priority zones and smaller buffer

to settlements

(A 800 m settlement buffer)

#17 Bird priority zones and

wind energy in forests

(A 4%—B 2% wind energy in forests)

#18 Bird priority zones and

wind energy in landscape protection areas

(A 3%—B 1% wind energy in landscape protection areas)

#19 Bird priority zones and

wind energy in nature park areas

(A 4%—B 2% wind energy in nature park areas)

#20 Bird priority zones and

wind energy in open spaces

(A 4%—B 2% wind energy in open spaces)