Table 3 TOWS matrix with strategies for the market uptake of FPBO produced from forest residues in Scandinavian countries, transport to the Netherlands and upgrade to marine biofuels

S (Internal Strength)—enablers:

(S1) Sawdust included in RED II Annex IX Part A

(S2) FPBO enables biomass transport to low biomass countries (+ I)

(S3) FPBO conversion reduces transport cost (+ I)

(S4) Fast pyrolysis increases bulk density (+ I)

(S5) sixfold increase of the energy density of biomass (+ I)

(S6) Large abundance of sawdust in Northern EU (+ I)

(S7) Currently a hazard assessment classification of FPBO is prepared (S8) REACH registration of FPBO enables trade and import in EU

W (Internal Weakness)—barriers:

(W1) Investment discouraged by few commercial-scale plants (+ I)

(W2) High CAPEX and OPEX for pyrolysis plants

(W3) Low energy content pyrolysis oil compared to fossil fuels (+ I)

(W4) Limited amount of skilled labour is available in remote areas (+ I)

(W5) Missing infrastructure, which needs to be built by skilled labour (+ I)

(W6) Heating of storage tanks required in cold regions (+ I)

(W7) Continuous stirring of FPBO required during storage (+ I)

(W8) Acidic character of the FPBO causes corrosion, metal content interferes with catalysts during upgrading in Fluid Catalytic Cracker

(W9) Classification and certification process not finalised

O (External Opportunities)—enablers:

(O1) Changing politics support biofuels compensation of fossil imports

(O2) Advanced biofuels counted double their energy content

(O3) Rising fossil fuel prices, legislative incentives such as CO₂ tax, ETS system and blending quota for advanced blended fuels in transport sectors will create markets

(O4) Decline of the pulp and paper industry in the North creates unused feedstock potential (+ I)

(O5) FPBO industry creates new value chains for regional companies and the local forest industry (+ I)

(O6) Creation of regional employment opportunities, support rural development and local resources use (+ I)

(O7) Upgraded FPBO (FCC and/or deoxygenation) could serve demand for sustainable aviation ad maritime fuels

S1,2,3,4 × O1,4,5: International stakeholders and industry should form associations to promote forest residues use for advanced biofuel production and inter industrial sector communication

S1,2 × O1,2,3: Feedstock quality and advancing biofuel production technology opens up new markets for the biomass that is converted into FPBO

S1,2 × O1,2,6,7: EU markets will increasingly demand alternative fuels if blending quotas are implemented. This opportunity should be explored. Germany could become a sales market for biofuels made from FPBO

S1,2 × O6: Further investigate technological possibilities along with certification processes to upgrade FPBO to advanced sustainable aviation fuels

S4 × O5: Forestry industry/refineries should invest increasingly in the installation of a FPBO plant because they could use their own resources of own plants nearby, establish regional value chains, reduce dependence on imports

S4,5 × O3,6: Additional feedstock types should be exploited: looking for adequate partners should be one of the first steps; e.g. (a) from wood and waste chains; (b) first thinning ground, raw wood; (c) remnants of natural disasters and similar

W1,4,5 × O1,2,3: Increase organisation of bilateral talks, workshops of feedstock providers and other stakeholders in the value chain

W1,2,4,5 × O6,7: Missing long-term operation of only 6 FPBO plants indicates investment insecurity. Incentives can only be provided by further nationally initiated funding programmes; FPBO must be included in new business concepts combined with other renewables

W4,5,6,7,8 × O2,3: Producing advanced biofuels nearby the FPBO plant and exporting the final fuel to other countries may be the easier option compared to exporting FPBO as an intermediate

W1,2 xO4,5: Therefore, it needs to be elaborated if FPBO-based biofuels may have a competitive advantage over biofuels based on residues of palm oil production in terms of costs in the future

W2,4,5 × O7: Construct FPBO plant near planned green hydrogen production sites and other industrial installations (pulp mills, refineries) to use synergies

T (External Threat)—barriers:

(T1): Political uncertainty: RED II and III adjustments and regulatory discontinuity of measures, slow or missing national implementation

(T2): POME part of RED II Annex IV, part A, will serve demand

(T3) In the Netherlands from 2025 onwards blending fossil maritime and aviation fuels with biofuels may not be possible anymore

(T4) Currently, prices for renewable advanced biofuels made from FPBO higher than other biofuels

(T5) NGOs and environmental lobbyists campaigning against woody resources use for energy application

(T6) Decreasing public appreciation of usage of woody feedstocks for biofuels

(T7) Supply of sawdust from sustainably managed forests must be regularly audited and certified

S1,6 × T1: National implementation of RED II is key and has to be promoted as well as national sub-quota for biofuels blending

S1,6 × T1,7: Creation of a long-term database, which continuously provides information about the availability of sustainable forestry feedstock, based on reliable data and controlled by independent institutions

S1,2,3 × T5,6,7: Prevailing misunderstanding of different biofuel generations; campaigns are needed in which it is clarified that (a) advanced biofuels do not compete with food production chains, (b) feedstock used has to undergo certification processes, (c) assessment of the biofuels life cycle is made, (d) biodiversity issues are considered

W6,7,8 × T2: Further R&D activities on FPBO quality, adapt characteristics according to the requirements of the engines that represent the most promising application field (e.g. eliminate metal content because already small contents are problematic for FCC units in refineries)

W3,6,7,8 × T2: FPBO quality determines application, always investigate the best fitting purpose in order to reach the highest value, clearer allocation of specific feedstock to specific applications/processes, e.g. lower quality FPBO could serve as a fuel for CHP plants in Sweden

W3,6,7,8 × T1,2: ASTM standardisation requirements, currently prevent the application of FPBO in SAF—> Further R&D activities on FPBO, adapt characteristics according to the requirements of plane engines

W1,2,4,5 × T4: Further R&D activities on plant operation, which lead to an increase in the process efficiency and therefore, (a) makes the plant operation also profitable and economic at smaller scale (output less than 25,000 t/yr) and (b) converge prices for advanced biofuels and conventional fuels