- Short communication
- Open Access
Pakistan’s energy scenario: a forecast of commercial energy consumption and supply from different sources through 2030
© The Author(s). 2018
- Received: 29 March 2018
- Accepted: 26 July 2018
- Published: 27 August 2018
The energy sector in Pakistan is facing several challenges resulting from insufficient production. The major objective of this study is to identify and forecast commercial energy consumption and supply from different sources, including oil and petroleum, gas, electricity, and coal sources.
A forecasting method was utilized for investigating the future commercial energy consumption and supply from different sources.
Forecasting results in the study reveal that the energy sector of Pakistan needs further attention to improve this sector, including the initiation of new policies and funding schemes to fulfill the country’s demand.
Therefore, this study suggests that the government of Pakistan pay further attention to improving commercial energy consumption and supply from different sources to solve the energy crisis in the country.
- Energy consumption
- Agriculture and coal
The energy sector of Pakistan is in crisis as a result of insufficient energy production to meet increased demand over the last decades. The major causes include debt recycling, financial conditions, and energy supplies. Natural gas and oil are the most dominant energy sources, with more than 80% of energy supply companies dependent on natural gas and oil. Low and cheap energy production from hydro electrical and coal resources are the main constraints that result in energy shortages and inadequate electricity production .
The demand for energy in Pakistan has increased due to the high population growth rate, which is estimated at about 3% per year. The use of coal, natural gas, oil, and liquefied petroleum gas has grown to accommodate the surging demands in the country’s energy sector. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey, consumption in the energy sector was 38.8 MTOE (million tonnes of oil equivalent) , which increased to 70.5 MTOE in 2016 [3, 4].
The energy sector plays a vital and important role in the development and economic growth of any country. Electricity—as a highly versatile form of energy—stimulates economic performance and plays an important role in the development of every sector of the economy. Over the past few decades, inadequate energy policy and energy production have plunged several countries into a severe power crisis, leading to poor economic performance [5, 6].
Over the past few decades, the failures of Pakistan’s energy policy have plunged the country into a severe power crisis and have led to poor economic performance. Like other advanced countries [7, 8], the demand for electricity in Pakistan is partly determined by issues such as rapid population growth, economic expansion, and electricity prices. However, Pakistan’s peculiar problems and its short-term power crisis arise from stealing, abuse, and over-utilization of electricity in homes and manufacturing as well as corruption, exaggerated, unreasonable or low institutional losses, mismanagement, and political arguments over large energy projects .
Multiple research studies have demonstrated that the energy sector is facing challenges globally in relation to sustainability, economics, and the environment. A range of models has been used to forecast and predict energy consumption and production. The major aim of this study is to forecast energy consumption from different sources including oil and petroleum, gas, electricity, and coal.
In this study, time series data was used to forecast the levels of future energy consumption of oil, gas, electricity, and coal. The data was collected from the Economic Survey of Pakistan and the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources and Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP).
In this equation, the variables x and y represent the sample means average (known_x’s) and average (known_y’s).
The demand for energy has grown rapidly with the increase in usage and supply. The extent to which the economy is compromised by price increases depends on the proportion of oil as a share of national income, the ability of end users to reduce their oil consumption, and the degree of dependence on imported oil .
Pakistan’s energy sector faces challenges with regard to insufficient production and supply. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate and forecast commercial energy consumption and supply from different sources including oil and petroleum, gas, electricity, and coal sources. The data were collected from the Economic Survey of Pakistan and HDIP.
In Pakistan, the development of appropriate policies for natural gas and oil production is not only necessary for improving and developing the energy sector, but also for economic development. The studies projections suggest guidelines which the Government of Pakistan may use to improve energy production from oil and other alternative sources. To increase Pakistan’s current ranking in global coal production, it is necessary to implement greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and consider alternative energy sources. This study suggests and recommends that the energy sector needs further improvements and the initiation of new policies and funding schemes to fulfill the country’s demands, including the consideration of solar electricity production.
The authors are grateful to the Research Center of Agricultural-Rural-Peasants, Anhui University Hefei, China for its moral support. Moreover, the authors are also indebted to the reviewers for their positive suggestions that helped to improve the content of this study.
The paper was supported by the Research Centre of Agricultural-Rural-Peasants, Anhui University Hefei, China.
Availability of data and materials
All data and material are available in this paper, so there is no other data to present.
AR conceived the study, collected the data, estimated the model, and drafted the manuscript. ZD read the article and made suggestions to the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Ethics approval and consent to participate
It is declared that this paper does not involve any human participants, human data, or human tissue.
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The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
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